The Saudi Arabian 2034 World Cup Bid and why it's a smart move

As a global sports and events leader and past FIFA executive I have been closely following the latest slate of hosting and bid announcements for upcoming FIFA World Cup editions. The politics, tactics, and outcomes have been incredibly interesting to follow and it has been an enriching experience to help advance some of these initiatives. There is one bid process I've been watching particularly closely, that of Saudi Arabia. So it was with great anticipation that I followed the media storm on March 1 resulting from the Saudi decision to formally launch its bid.

In looking at this initiative over the past few months I'm convinced that it's an excellent idea and a smart move for Saudi Arabia.

My analysis and conclusions come down to a few key elements which I'll describe below.

High-Level Strategic Alignment:

First off, hosting the FIFA World Cup is a smart next step when considering Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 agenda. The slogan: "Growing. Together." could just as easily have been the Vision 2030 slogan - it shows the close alignment at the highest messaging level. The move makes even more sense when you look at the three pillars underpinning the Vision 2030 agenda: a vibrant society, a thriving economy, and an ambitious nation. It is evident that the ability to host a World Cup will enhance and advance all three pillars. The economic impacts, while likely positive, may not be as significant when compared with other Vision 2030 initiatives - here Saudi Arabia has much more ambitious plans that dwarf any economic impacts of a World Cup. More interesting, in my view, is the impact that such a move will have on building a vibrant society and an ambitious nation. Hosting a FIFA World Cup - particularly in the new expanded format - has the effect of instantly turning your nation into a global hub for the leadup and duration of the tournament. This fits well with the country's multilateral and external strategies. Moreover, the men's FIFA World Cup is one of the most complex global events for a nation to host - so much so that other parts of the world are now increasingly turning to multinational consortia to get the job done. So the opportunity to host, and to do so on your own, is a clear sign of an ambitious - and capable - nation.

Infrastructure Capacity:

My assessment of the existing football and transport infrastructure in Saudi Arabia has concluded that there is actually a relatively small capacity gap between what the FIFA World Cup tournament footprint will require and what the Saudis already have on offer. Consistent and sustained state and private funding for sports (particularly football) has resulted in a fairly healthy inventory of existing stadiums. Riyadh and Jeddah already possess venues which could easily host an opener or final match with minimum overlay investments. The ongoing upgrade of King Fahd Sports City stadium will further enhance this existing capability but must consider FIFA requirements, particularly given the existing 400m track. Four additional stadiums could fairly quickly be retrofitted to meet FIFA Category 1 requirements. Current scheduling guidelines for the expanded tournament format, and indeed the bid documents for future FIFA World Cups, envisage around 16 stadiums (called Competition Venues in FIFA slang). In 10 years that's a fairly small gap for a country of this size to plug and nothing when compared to challenges experienced by Qatar in 2022.

On the transport infrastructure side the gaps are even smaller. Saudi Arabia has sufficient airport capacity to handle the expanded visitor traffic and with the annual Hajj pilgrimage they have extensive experience in dealing with significant amounts of visitors. Again, this is very different than the Doha-centric model in Qatar in 2022 where the airport had initially been designed for connecting traffic and lacked the arrival capacity into Doha. Other transport considerations are also much simpler to overcome. The country has an extensive road and rail infrastructure and well designed city transport links such as the Riyadh metro, which is now coming online.

Planning, Delivery and the Bid:

The Saudi Arabian Football Federation and the bid leadership team, have also been smart planners, giving significant strategic and tactical thought to the bid process and what it will take to host a FIFA World Cup. This is critical, and surprisingly few potential hosts really think about what a bid, let alone a successful bid, will mean for them and their nation.

This is evident from the impact section of the Saudi bid site. The Saudis also have a strong track record of delivering on their event commitments. Moreover, the growth in their Sports sector is clearly linked to the Vision 2030 agenda meaning that, in addition to the funds they will commit to the FIFA World Cup as an event, they were also already going to spend resources on expanding grassroots and commercial capacity in the sector. This will result in a multiplier effect that will benefit the tournament.

The Saudi National Gaming and eSports Strategy, which has earmarked roughly $38B for investments, should also not be overlooked. This initiative is in the nexus of convergence between physical and virtual sports - and it's increasingly becoming a critical strategic consideration for the entertainment industry. The timing of this means that 2034 could potentially result in a convergence of eSports and the FIFA World Cup. This is significant since it may be a potential answer to the age old issue plaguing FIFA - the question of what comes next after conventional broadcast rights cease being relevant and the sponsorship well runs dry?

Another key consideration - particularly for FIFA - will be the overall sustainability vision and strategy. While this would not be a deal breaker in a single bid scenario, it is an important element of the bid process. Here Saudi Arabia will want to focus on the strides already made within the country (as an indicator of commitment) and also link the sustainability strategy with the Vision 2030 priorities. On a more micro lens (focused on the tournament itself) the question of sustainable stadium construction (no doubt well informed by the latest FIFA Stadium Guidelines - which I covered in an earlier article), green energy, recycling during the tournament, and hybrid vehicles will need to be fleshed out.

Talent:

Saudi Arabia already has a good pool of talent with strong experience in the delivery of elite sporting events. The Saudi elite event portfolio includes the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, LIV Golf, the Saudi Cup, among others. They also recently hosted the FIFA Club World Cup which, while not a major event in itself, is an indication that FIFA is starting to measure their World Cup delivery capability and establishing initial operating level people contacts. That means that a good basis for the operational delivery talent needed for a FIFA World Cup is already there. The focus should shift to supplementing domestic capacity with the correct mix of experience from the global pool.

In speaking with potential hosts I can't overstress the importance of proper planning, good governance, clear accountabilities, and strong talent acquisition at the onset, as key pillars of success. The most important among these is securing good talent with relevant and broad international experience. Having built and led many such teams I am often struck by some of the errors that nations (and even FIFA itself) make when they hire for such events. Two key lessons come to mind:

1. For your strategic leadership posts you need a mix of nationals and expats, with FIFA knowledge but also a broader experience and skill set. You will want many nationals as part of the leadership since they will understand and work with host country governance, ministries, and business in delivering success. When staffing leadership level expats, you want a mix of experience and a more strategic mindset. I would avoid past Host Country leadership teams and focus on people with past leadership-level FIFA HQ experience from Zurich. The logic here is simple, events like the FIFA World Cup come once a generation to a specific nation. The MBAs reading this will immediately realize that this creates an information asymmetry vis-à-vis FIFA (or another entity in the case of other major events). So you need a good mix of expats on the leadership team to bridge the asymmetry gap and ensure national interests are prioritized. But you also don't want the people who did the mistakes on the ground in the last editions as they will lack the vision to take the tournament to the next level. The FIFA HQ people see the evolution and trends and can move the organization one step ahead. These people shouldn't however be FIFA-only experienced, so select those who have led other global events as part of a bigger event portfolio career. Such individuals are few but they are priceless. They understand FIFA on a strategic level from the inside and, importantly, also know FIFA gaps and blind spots. Their experience is critical to defining a clear vision, creating a competitive advantage, and differentiating the product - thus ultimately growing your national capacity in a strategic manner.
2. For your tactical and operational posts you also want to a mix of nationals and expats, but here you can staff up on past FIFA event people. These will be the doers and so you need people who have done it in the past and succeeded. You should look for a mix of experienced nationals who have delivered sporting events but also exceptional service experiences in other market segments (ex: hospitality). This should be supplemented with a healthy dose of ex-FIFA event expats who specialize on global events - the people who worked in the Host Country teams on the ground. In my experience, when hiring expats for tactical and operational posts, I would focus on past FIFA event experience and FIA event experience (host country committee, or FIFA local entity). I would place less emphasis on Olympics experience (as the underlying business and operating models are quite different).

The observation here is that getting the right people, particularly at the strategic leadership posts is key. In fact, getting the staffing mix right is the most important decision a host entity can make.

You get the right people on the team from day one and you'll easily succeed. If you get those initial hires wrong, you'll end up replacing them and starting over with significantly less time on the clock. That is a recipe for disaster.

Here, again, I think that the Saudis are thinking about this exactly the right way and have engaged in dialogue with experts to ensure that they take the right steps in identifying top talent for the 2034 bid and planning phases. The challenge they'll encounter will be direct competition with the 2026 and 2030 World Cup editions and the fact that the overall talent pool at the strategic leadership level is surprisingly sparse. For the 2026 World Cup, the team is right now getting ready to massively staff up as they move from planning to the pre-tournament operations phase. Fortunately the 2030 edition is further behind and currently still in the phase of sorting out governance, cooperation, and high level issues.

Legacy:

Last, I want to turn briefly to the legacy of hosting a FIFA World Cup. This can be a complex issue as evidenced in Brazil and South Africa. In Qatar, while legacy plans were established, the jury is still out on whether the delivery of legacy (beyond transport and city infrastructure updates) was a success.

For Saudi Arabia I think there is true potential to achieve a sustainable legacy plan. Here's why:

1. Legacy Facility Capacity: At a population of nearly 40M, Saudi Arabia as a nation has the capacity for a business model based on a much larger football infrastructure footprint. For comparison Germany has 16 Class 1 stadiums and 28 Class 2 stadiums, similarly Poland fields 5 Class 1 and 6 Class 2 stadiums. Interestingly both countries have an average population age which is at least 12 years higher than that of Saudi Arabia's.
2. Commitment: Saudi Arabia established Vision 2030 prior to launching its bid and has a centralized and focused commitment to advancing its strategic nation building objectives regardless of the FIFA World Cup process. Whereas in other national bids the legacy plan was a consequence of the FIFA bid requirements, here the bid for the World Cup is part of a larger legacy plan already.
3. Resources: A key to achieving a lasting and successful legacy plan is to ensure that sufficient resources are available post tournament to ensure that infrastructure overlays are adapted effectively for long-term end use applications. I recall countless projects which included elaborate legacy plans that never materialized because the nation was already over budget on the delivery of the tournament itself. FIFA has a unique ability to expand requirements and, by extension, costs. Many nations are unprepared and legacy business model activations are one of the first things to suffer. Again, I'm not worried about this in the case of the Saudi bid. First, they have the resources to deliver everything. Second, they have a track record of successfully reusing one-time investments. Third, it's already going to be part of a larger legacy effort.

Summing it up:

As highlighted above I think the Saudis have been smart in moving forward with their bid. It's a strategic move, it's aligned with their national vision, and it's something that will benefit the nation in the long-term. As opposed to many previous bids, bringing the FIFA World Cup to Saudi Arabia is a single piece on a much larger national and geopolitical chess board.

When I was at FIFA we used to wonder whether the World Cup had grown so large and complex to execute that it had perhaps outgrown the capabilities and economic capabilities of individual nations. I think that the Saudis, with this bid, show that this is clearly not the case.